Unwinding Of Fed Balance Sheet Catalyst For Higher Yields, Lower Stock Prices
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In an environment where the private sector is repairing balance sheets, that is, credit demand being low despite zero interest. Whether that tightening takes the form of higher rates or a gradual.
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Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, Didn’t miss a beat. The sixth month of the QE-Unwind ended on March 31, which is reflected in the Fed’s balance sheet, released this week, for the week ending April 4. The QE-Unwind appears to be on automatic pilot, clicking along at the pace that accelerated in January, despite the sporadic stock market sell-offs since early February.
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The unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet. and low prices for oil (low gas prices) which may not go away any time soon (separate discussion required on inflation). Therefore, inflation may not be a.
For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices. while the.
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In fact, just last week the Fed increased its balance sheet by over $13.5 billion. No wonder the stock market shot higher. Since these balance sheet expansions generally have occurred at points where asset prices were at risk due to some "events," the latest expansion occurred during the "tax cut hope" driven rise.
But the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is also suggestive of lower, not higher, interest rates. In the past, despite what the Fed suggested would happen, rates rose during their QE programs as money rotated out of the "safety of bonds" back into equities. When those programs ended, rates fell.
The Federal Reserve guided that they will reduce their balance sheet beginning in late 2017. Many commentators insist that selling bonds will result in lower prices and higher interest rates. they.
Treasury prices extended their decline Monday, pushing yields higher, as investors looked ahead. growing budget deficits and the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its balance sheet have weighed on.
Worries of potential economic recession ahead are still present, which is suppressing yields and allowing inversely correlated bond prices. the higher the trading volume, the lower the liquidity.